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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39504/-1
CME Note: Bright asymmetrical CME seen to the west in all three coronagraphs. Its source is the M2.2 flare from AR 4105 (S15W70) peaking 2025-06-15T07:56Z and the associated eruption with faint ejecta seen going westward in GOES SUVI 304, post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195, and a relatively small area of dimming centered around (S11W65) seen in SDO AIA 193 and even clearer in EUVI A 195. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T03:52Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 62.63 hour(s)
Difference: 3.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-06-16T16:22Z
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